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Why, contrary to theoretical predictions, do marine microbe communities harbor tremendous phenotypic heterogeneity? How can so many marine microbe species competing in the same niche coexist? We discovered a unifying explanation for both phenomena by investigating a non-cooperative game that interpolates between individual-level competitions and species-level outcomes. We identified all equilibrium strategies of the game. These strategies represent the probability distribution of competitive abilities (e.g. traits) and are characterized by maximal phenotypic heterogeneity. They are also neutral towards each other in the sense that an unlimited number of species can co-exist while competing according to the equilibrium strategies. Whereas prior theory predicts that natural selection would minimize trait variation around an optimum value, here we obtained a mathematical proof that species with maximally variable traits are those that endure. This discrepancy may reflect a disparity between predictions from models developed for larger organisms in contrast to our microbe-centric model. Rigorous mathematics proves that phenotypic heterogeneity is itself a mechanistic underpinning of microbial diversity. This discovery has fundamental ramifications for microbial ecology and may represent an adaptive reservoir sheltering biodiversity in changing environmental conditions. 

We found a startling correlation (Pearson ρ > 0.97) between a single event in daily sea surface temperatures each spring, and peak fish egg abundance measurements the following summer, in 7 years of approximately weekly fish egg abundance data collected at Scripps Pier in La Jolla California. Even more surprising was that this event-based result persisted despite the large and variable number of fish species involved (up to 46), and the large and variable time interval between trigger and response (up to ~3 months). To mitigate potential over-fitting, we made an out-of-sample prediction beyond the publication process for the peak summer egg abundance observed at Scripps Pier in 2020 (available on bioRxiv). During peer-review, the prediction failed, and while it would be tempting to explain this away as a result of the record-breaking toxic algal bloom that occurred during the spring (9x higher concentration of dinoflagellates than ever previously recorded), a re-examination of our methodology revealed a potential source of over-fitting that had not been evaluated for robustness. This cautionary tale highlights the importance of testable true out-of-sample predictions of future values that cannot (even accidentally) be used in model fitting, and that can therefore catch model assumptions that may otherwise escape notice. We believe that this example can benefit the current push towards ecology as a predictive science and support the notion that predictions should live and die in the public domain, along with the models that made them.